How to play surebets in bookmaker

What does a fork mean in sports betting

A sure bet is an opportunity to bet on opposite outcomes of the same sporting event with a guaranteed profit. The shoulders of a fork are the opposite outcomes that form a fork.

A surebet is a player who uses surebets to make money.

How surebets appear at bookmakers

Surebets appear when the bookmaker’s odds diverge from the market, that is, the rest of the bookmakers. This happens for the following reasons:

The bookmaker overestimates the odds to attract customers.
Odds change with different delays for different bookmakers.
Large bets lead to a sharp drop in the odds. This is also caused by a large stream of regular-sized bets received in a short period of time.
Forks do not last long – a matter of minutes. Bookmakers monitor competitor odds and abnormal bet flows to quickly exit surebets. Players use public and self-written surebet monitoring programs: as soon as a surebet appears in a public service, a large number of bets come to it – and this leads to its end. Therefore, fast arbers remain in profit.
How to find surebets in bookmakers
There are two ways to find a sure bet at bookmakers.

Calculate yourself

You can determine the surebet by the formula: Sp = 1 / K1 + 1 / K2 + … + 1 / Kn, where Sp is the sum of the probabilities, n is the number of outcomes in one market, K1, K2, …, Kn are the odds for the outcomes of one market.

Take the tennis match between Federer and Nadal from the previous example. If the coefficient on the first is 2.05, and on the second 2.10, then: 1 / 2.05 + 1 / 2.10 = 0.964. The result is less than one, that is, it is a fork.

Use fork scanners

Use services that look for surebets at bookmakers for you and calculate the amount of bets that will allow you to earn. Many of them are free and work online. The disadvantage of this method is that the power of public scanners is mediocre, and there are a lot of users. Therefore, they fix only a part of the surebets, and even those quickly disappear.

How to calculate the amount of bets for surebet
You can determine the amount of the bet on the leverage of the surebet using the formula:

S = 1 / coefficient / Sp x B, where S is the amount of the bet on the leverage of the surebet, Sp is the total probability of outcomes in decimal terms, B is the size of the pot allocated to the whole surebet.

How bookmakers treat arbers

Most bookmakers apply sanctions to players who bet on surebets. The most common measure is to reduce the maximum rate. Some bookmakers can block the account and deprive the player of their own funds, but legal ones do not do this.

Here are recommendations to help you avoid bookmaker sanctions.

Bet round amounts. Fractional values, such as 8574 rubles and 30 kopecks, arouse suspicion among bookmakers.
Don’t bet the whole pot. An ordinary player will not risk the entire amount of his account every time.
Avoid high yield surebets. The bookmaker can deliberately create a high-profit surebet to catch arbers and later return the bet, citing an error in the line.
Do not deposit or withdraw funds after every bet. Leave funds on the balance.
Place regular bets on popular events. Bookmakers take on the pencil of players who constantly bet large amounts on unpopular outcomes and minor tournaments. Diversify your arb bets with regular and multiples.

Types of surebets in bookmakers

Forks are divided into groups according to several criteria.

By the number of shoulders: two-way, three-way, and so on.
Full and incomplete: in incomplete surebets you don’t bet on the most unlikely outcome of the market, but in full surebets you bet on all outcomes.
In pre-match and live: surebets appear frequently during a live match, but you may not have time to place a bet with the desired odds.
Pros and cons of sports betting
Plus surebets in making a profit for any outcome of the event.

There are many downsides to betting on surebets.

For large profits, you will have to keep large sums of money in the accounts of several bookmakers.
There is a high risk of account blocking, delay and loss of money.
You will have to bet, among other things, with online bookmakers illegal in Russia, and this is the blocking of sites and transfers.
Surebets are only formally considered a win-win option. The risk of account suspension and the need for a large starting pot make this strategy not very attractive. For surebets to be successful, you need to devote a huge amount of time and take into account all the described nuances.

In addition, betting companies are constantly improving algorithms, and surebets become smaller, and betting on them without suspicion is more difficult.